Sunday, December 14, 2014

My Understanding of the Concept of Probability

When we were near the end of learning about Probability, we were given a project; a probability project. You see, there are two types of probability, theoretical and experimental. Of course there's also the compound probabilty which consists of independent and dependent and then there's ratios and percent.  We had to find the theoretical and experimenal probability of an independent compound probability of an experiment that we had to conduct with one probability. To be more specific, I did Battle Spirits Cards. And I had three different variables; colour, number, and the special glittery cards. There were 2 colours; blue and green. The numbers varied from 1-6. There were 2 special glittery cards, 1 blue, 1 green and both were #5. I counted every card of each variable and catogorised it as #colour. Of course the specials were also a part of this. I simply had to shuffle it later and replace the cards and then note the #colour%special/ordinary. Later I counted how much of each catogory; # then colour and then the specials.
Special, # and Colour

Back of the Cards

First of all, Probability is not a guess. It is far more educated and precise to be a guess. A guess is when you choose randomly out of all the possibilties. Probability is when you calculate using all the variables in question. Variables include; theoretical, experimental, compound; independent and dependent as well as the other variables which depend on what you're trying to calculate. There are formulas and you actually have to tally and work out the answer of the possibility and as I have said before, this is more accurate but this is due to the calculations. 

History of Ebay and Amazon for Investments
SAT Scores by Family Income
There are many ways that this can be used in real life. For example, investments; you have to know and calculate how much profit you can get if you invest in them; so you need their profit in a year and so. Detectives calculate the criminal activity so that they can see if there's any criminal who's doing something or to calculate robberies, they find clues and thus use it to calculate the probability of finding the criminal at a certain place and time. Actors and Actresses calculate if their movie will be famous and can bring money. People who work in production companies calculate the probability of people buying things from them, if there are any defects and how much they need to make in a year/month/week. If you are starting a business, then you need to calculate the probability of earning enough money to buy the necessary objects to keep increasing the customers and if you can succeed. Also teachers need to calculate the probability of averages, so that they can figure out which is meeting standerds, which is below meeting standerds, are they improving, exceeding standerds and so on. Doctors choose which medicine/treatment is good for patients. There are also betting standerds that has to be met. 


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